I’m no politician or “special reporter.” But what’s struck me about the past two days of slap stick negotiations around Cameron’s demands, is that it was FAR TOO EASY.
Let me just state for the record, I believe the UK should remain in the EU. What I write here,, my humble opinion, bears no relation to the details of waffle involved. It doesn´t need to.
With only one foot in the door of the European Union, Cameron is viewed as being a “would be” tin pot dictator. There he resides, oblivious to the fact that EU leaders this side of the English Chanel have no respect for his attempted manipulation.
So whilst Cameron believes he’s holding the rest of the EU to ransom, he gets his own way, right? Even achieved what he calls special status for the UK, right?
“Hey I´ve cracked it, the undecided “plebs” back home will go for the “YES” vote now. Even some members of the “NO” campaign might do a U-turn in favour, right? Result! I am the saviour and I get my own way!”
Well, he might have some success with the voting “plebs.” BUT what people need to consider is that he´s playing a very dangerous game of
poke poker. YES or NO the outcome won´t be pretty for the British public. This is what hit me in the face when I watched the news last night, he´s fluffed it big time.
On day one there was fierce opposition from four eastern European countries, and various northern European countries voiced real concern against some aspects.
Day two and he´d suddenly won them ALL over! A unanimous vote! He´d got his own way on everything he´d asked for! Well done Cameron! After all,, European leaders don´t want a Brexit. It would be disastrous for the UK if that happened, and the rippling result would hit them too. So they’ve all bent over backwards and crumbled — right???
Well,, no,, they haven´t…
My suspicions were verified when a BBC reporter interviewed a top bod who holds all the cards in Brussels. Asked if written confirmation of these changes would be signed, sealed, and delivered by member states starting now? The answer was an emphatic NO.
Wearing a wry smile he stated that so far this is worth nothing more than a verbal agreement. NOTHING had been written or signed…
The reporter delved even further, and the top bod replied with “There is no point! At this time we do not know if the British people will vote to stay in or leave.” The reporter then started to ask another question, but didn´t get chance to finish it. “THERE IS NO POINT IN DOING SO AT THIS TIME.”
So to get to THE POINT, the other EU leaders got what they want. On the eve of day two, a mutiny was born. They must have all agreed with each other (in private) to con the con man himself, and by doing so the results of the referendum are more likely to be in their favour not his…
Fact: Beyond the referendum, if Britain remains in the EU… Oops,, the European Union then hold all the cards and Cameron is knocked off his podium. Remember that emphatic answer from the top bod?
Well, when it comes down to the nitty gritty of Cameron´s wonderful draft agreement, “for Britain and the British people.” Nothing has been set in stone. If the results of the referendum are favourable, then and only then, will his demands be taken seriously.
Except they won´t be…
The main players at the EU card game have won. They won´t grant special status in any kind of written agreement. EU reforms on various matters of present day concerns will still go ahead, but NOTHING will be all about Britain. By then it will be clear that Cameron shot himself in the foot.
Desperate credibility reclamation number one for him, would be to blame European leaders for the consequences “to Britain and the British people.” Some Brits might even believe that. However, living amidst the high stakes card players here. We´ve all noticed the little British salesman who knocks on the door with his own agenda from time to time, is considered as nothing but a flea in the ear…
- IN would mean no favours or special privileges.
- OUT would invite no confidence placed in the UK from any country in the world! Too risky for business! Yes the EU would be scarred in the process, but not long term or unrepairable.
- If Cameron called yet another referendum, the same game would be played, and the outcome would not change.
There is one puzzling factor here, why didn´t Cameron´s multitude of “highly intelligent” advisors see this coming? Did they not notice the consequences while sat at the 19th hole drinking copious amounts of whisky…?
Too late to try anything else now,, “Barman, get us another round in, and I ain´t saying please.”
In sober conclusion. I still think the best option is to stay in the EU:
- No effect on trade, it continues as before.
- Decision making within the umbrella of the EU. On behalf of Britain, not dictated by Britain. This doesn´t seem to go down well with some people, so careful thinking is required. It´s a mere drop in the ocean compared to the horrendous alternative.
With a NO vote, Britain has to re-write the history books, but the poor economic climate and a crumbling infrastructure will dominate the outcome… With such bad timing,, some or all of the following are possible:
- Trade would be seriously affected. No confidence gives investors the jitters. The stock market crashes.
- Lending, borrowing, no chance. Banks crash too.
- A weak economy would be dictated to by world powers.
- Uncertain future? Bye Bye, even to loyal businesses.
- The ability to make major decisions would be seriously diminished due to outside influence and control from – anywhere in the world.
- Security, intelligence services, diminished when it’s needed most?
Cameron thought the EU was bad…! It´s a no brainer, stay as is, or potentially lose everything. The big deal about immigration is the least of Britain´s woes…!
As for us expats we can only sit, watch, and wait to see if it affects us…